US federal legalization of marijuana in 2030?

Last night I was a guest on a podcast with Hi-Curious and the question of when the US will see federal legalization of cannabis came up and ironically all the panelists shared the same thing a day after President Biden’s State of the Union address gloomy prospect. A fierce War on Drugs dinosaur, Biden actually wrote many of the laws that still keep marijuana prisoners in prison. Democrats lose seats in the House and Senate in the midterm elections. The “next guy,” whether it’s Biden for a second term, Trump Part 2, or Mitt “Only Stupid People Use Marijuana” Romney, are all not fans of marijuana legalization. So while America seems to be stuck in the mud on federal legalization, the rest of the world seems to be making headway on marijuana legalization, despite the UN drug treaties listing cananbis as a Schedule 1 drug.

All speakers advised that if you’re investing in cannabis now, you’d better have a 5 to 8 year time frame for US federal legalization, as “just around the corner” looks iffy for legal weed at best.

The prospects for the global cannabis markets over the past five years are incredible. The cannabis industry has soared to unexpected heights. Medical and recreational cannabis programs are expanding in all regions of the world. Although growth is faster in some areas than others,

Before the pandemic, 50 countries had legal medicinal cannabis industries and only two had recreational cannabis markets. The onset of the pandemic prompted many governments and citizens to grapple with the potential of the cannabis market and the drug’s therapeutic benefits. The latest country to officially legalize adult-use cannabis is Malta. Another European country, Luxembourg, recently decriminalized the use of adult weed, but said its residents could only grow it for personal use and not for commercial purposes.

Most global cannabis reports base their findings on the United States and Canada. But there are other major cannabis markets with excellent prospects around the world. By 2025, experts predict that the global cannabis market will be worth at least $40 billion, with a large percentage of that coming from North America. Still, there’s no harm in checking out other international markets, especially those that have the most to offer this year.

European cannabis industry

The European cannabis industry shows promise for the years to come. The launch of its first medicinal cannabis exchange reader fund (ETF) sold its potential to provide promising and lucrative opportunities for operators in the industry. Several countries in Europe are rapidly exploring ways to introduce a legalized market for commercial cannabis. Countries that have succeeded include Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and the Czech Republic.

The Netherlands, specifically Amsterdam, is one of the few regions where European tourists can freely consume cannabis. However, recreational cannabis is not legal.

All eyes seem to be on Germany at the moment. The country is considering expanding its legalization efforts to include recreational cannabis programs. With a population of around 81 million people, Germany could effectively create new opportunities for economic growth to benefit its citizens. The MJBizDaily 2021 Annual Marijuana Business Factbook predicts that Germany’s adult-use market will outpace California’s in the early years.

Germany’s large tourism sector, which attracts at least 40 million international citizens annually, is likely to grow once legal adult cannabis use is licensed and sold in Germany. This will be a win-win situation for the cannabis sector and the tourism industry.

Everything in the European cannabis market could change if Germany signs the Adult Cannabis Act. In late 2021, the country’s three major political parties agreed to regulate the distribution and sale of adult-use cannabis, meaning it’s no longer a question of “if,” but of “when.” If Germany succeeds, other European countries will follow suit.

South America and Central America

Both regions are making steady strides in legalizing cannabis and expanding existing markets. Last year, Panama launched its medical cannabis industry in August, while Colombia approved the sale of cannabis flower to other countries. On the other hand, Mexico finally released the rules and policies that would regulate its newly formed market.

South American and Central American countries are quietly moving to open their regions to international cannabis sales. Colombia and Mexico are making the most moves, and investors want to invest in both countries. Mexico’s extensive population of 131 million makes it potentially the largest cannabis market in Central America. While Columbia is on track to become one of the largest exporters of dried cannabis flower in South America.

Meanwhile, some South and Central American countries have yet to decide to legalize cannabis for medical or adult use. For example, the Costa Rica Legislative Assembly successfully passed the Medicinal Cannabis Act earlier this year. Only for the President of the country to take the whole process back a few steps by vetoing the bill. Now, Congress is expected to return to the drawing board to make the president’s proposed changes. Whether this bill will make it onto the President’s table in a few months’ time is uncertain. Both South

America and Central America face their fair share of obstacles. However, this has done little to hinder or destroy the cannabis industry’s vision for the region. In the near future, both areas will have fast-growing cannabis markets with significant economic momentum.

Africa and Asia

Africa has optimal weather conditions suitable for cannabis cultivation, but the region remains one of the lowest producers of the crop. This may be a thing of the past as recent updates from Zimbabwe, Ghana and South Africa show that some countries are poised to exploit legal cannabis markets.

For example, Zimbabwe has granted permits to around 56 global and local companies to grow and process medicinal cannabis and hemp. Those licenses were issued in September 2021, after a three-year wait since the country decriminalized medicinal cannabis. The government announced that it plans to become a major exporter of cannabis products grown in Africa. Since those announcements were made, giant cannabis corporations in Canada, Switzerland, and Germany have expressed interest in investing in the country.

The opposite is the case in Southeast Asia. The region still upholds some of the toughest drug laws and penalties in the world. For now, only Thailand seems to be making headway in shaking off Southeast Asian anti-cannabis sentiment.

In 2018, Thailand approved the use of medicinal cannabis. It went even further by decriminalizing the production and sale of medicinal cannabis in 2020. This year, the country plans to remove cannabis from its list of addictive substances, one step closer to full decriminalization. This move has brought Southeast Asia closer to accepting cannabis plants.

bottom line

Several Canadian and US operators have begun filing claims in various international cannabis markets. Big companies like Tilray and Casa Verde Capital plan to get early footholds in countries with potentially large cannabis markets. As this international cannabis market continues to develop, it is expected that more countries will expand their legalization programs and become more relaxed in enforcing cannabis ownership rules.

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