It looks like America’s pandemic weed-buying frenzy is over
The Haymaker is Leafly Senior Editor Bruce Barcott’s opinion column on cannabis politics and culture.
Two months ago, Dr. Anthony Fauci calls United States ‘out of pandemic phase’ on Covid-19 virus. The federal government’s airline mask mandate ended the same week. All around us, other signals of the end of a pandemic are emerging. Summer concerts and music festivals will take place for the first time since 2019. Graduation ceremonies take place live and in person.
Now comes another sign that the pandemic era is coming to an end: cannabis users are buying less weed.
Data from three of America’s most developed legal cannabis states — Colorado, Oregon, and California — show that customers are returning to their pre-pandemic buying habits after nearly two years of increased use.
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We knew it couldn’t last forever
It’s a trend that’s unfolding exactly as a number of cannabis market observers have been anticipating. In the spring of 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic swept the nation, cannabis stores across the country experienced a dramatic buying spurt as customers stocked up on supplies to calm their anxiety and ease the long days and nights of lockdown.
Even as doors closed and budtenders were forced to drop off pre-order purchases via curbside pickup, stores saw sales increase about 30%.
We knew it couldn’t last forever, and it didn’t. The hull side of the pandemic bump has now taken shape.
Take a look at Colorado’s monthly sales, which I’ve broken down by pre-pandemic, post-pandemic, and post-pandemic periods:
This bump looks very similar to a similar one in Oregon’s monthly sales chart:
Here’s what California’s quarterly sales data looks like:
Mature markets reveal more
Of course, these are just three of the 13 active adult markets. Most other states are too immature to provide much information on this question, as reduced per capita shopping is still being offset by new store openings and more black market buyers migrating to the legal side.
Colorado, Oregon and California are markets with a relatively mature structure and a stable number of retail stores. (I don’t include Washington, the other mature market, because the state’s data is notoriously late and bad.)
Still increasing sales in younger constitutional states
Not every state is experiencing exactly the same pandemic surge. Sales in Massachusetts still appear to be holding at full pandemic levels. Monthly earnings in Arizona, Michigan and Illinois continue to rise, but those states opened their businesses just before or during the pandemic.
To be clear: Covid has not gone away. More than 100,000 new cases are reported in the United States every day. But the pandemic era of our lives seems to be coming to an end. With the vaccines available, we are learning to live with the virus and adjust our personal risk precautions.
With this closure, some users may need slightly less cannabis to manage our anxiety and stress.
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The waning of the pandemic buying wave comes as no surprise to economist Beau Whitney, founder of Whitney Economics and co-author of Leafly’s annual cannabis jobs report. He was already anticipating a drop in purchases in late 2021 — but then the Omicron variant extended our global slowdown by a few more months. He says the end of remote working for many companies has forced a shift in consumption for many workers.
“Basically, people have less opportunity to use cannabis because they’re a bit back at work,” Whitney told me yesterday. “So sales have peaked in some states. Oregon is a great example of a state where we actually see negative short-term growth.”
Inflation and competition are also factors
Whitney pointed out that other factors, such as rising inflation and increasing competition, could also play a role. The pandemic is important – but it is not everything.
Newly legalized states like New Mexico and Arizona, he says, are “pulling demand away from nearby states like Colorado. And in some states, you’re seeing derivative products” — like hemp-derived delta-8 THC products — “competing with licensed cannabis products. So there is also a competitive element.”
Whitney expects slower or even negative growth rates in some of America’s mature constitutional states this year. Cannabis tourism, which once fueled sales in markets like Colorado, Nevada, and California, could decline as other states legalize and cannabis stores become less of an exciting novelty.
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Lessons from the pandemic
What have we learned from all of this? We have learned – and elected officials have recognized – that cannabis is truly a must-have for many adults.
The pandemic buying wave was driven by two main factors: need and opportunity. Many of us needed relief from the fears, worries, and stresses of everyday survival in a worldwide global pandemic. We needed rest. We had to sleep.
At the same time, the work-from-home orders have given many of us an expanded opportunity to choose when, where and how we incorporate cannabis into our daily lives – without the boss constantly looking over our shoulder or quizzing us about things that ” Security Meeting” in the alley.
It feels strange working in an industry where sales have actually been helped by the pandemic. More than a million Americans have been killed by Covid since March 2020. It’s not something we wished for. But it has been gratifying to see how cannabis has helped tens of millions of people take care of their mental and physical health over the past two years or more. In a growing number of states, these licensed, regulated products are not only legal. They are essential.
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Bruce Barcott
Leafly senior editor Bruce Barcott oversees news, investigations and feature projects. He is a Guggenheim Fellow and the author of Weed the People: The Future of Legal Marijuana in America.
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