Cannabis Analyst: SAFE Act Will Not Reach Senate Vote, But Probably “Compromise Scenario”

By Nina Zdinjak

The US House of Representatives voted for the fourth time on Monday for the SAFE (Secure and Fair Enforcement Banking) law. The bill aimed to give banks the ability to provide their services to state-legal cannabis companies that had never been turned over to the Senate before.

And Cantor Fitzgerald’s analyst Pablo Zuanic does not see the bill getting a vote in the Senate either, as the leading Democrats there are pushing for broader reforms rather than “isolated changes at the federal level” for the industry.

Back in March, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer held a brief conference with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) to discuss his actions Elaboration of comprehensive reform laws reported.

Just last week, Schumer announced his plans to introduce federal legalization law soon.

“As soon as it’s in place, it will hit the ground,” said Schumer.

Photo by OlegMalyshev / Getty Images

“Compromise scenario”

“Given the severe constraints of a two-year term in Congress, the apparent lukewarm support from President Biden and the threat of a Republican libuster, we see that a ‘compromise scenario’ is very likely,” Zuanic said in a statement on Tuesday.

RELATED: If Senate Democrats’ cannabis reform idea is safe banking law, they should give up now

With Democrats making noise for so long and cannabis legalization going on for a while, the analyst doubts they’ll end up doing anything material, but believes “a closer bill” will likely get the final signature.

According to Zuanic, that limited bill would include:

  • Decriminalization at the federal level, which is supposedly acceptable to the President as well;
  • Debt rescheduling of cannabis from Class 1 status under the Controlled Substances Act;
  • Banking reform;
  • States can decide on their programs.

If the bill is accepted in the format given above, it would be a positive change for multi-state operators and ultimately improve their ratings.

RELATED: Why the Cannabis Industry Needs Congress to Pass the SAFE Banking Act

“We believe that banking reform regulations would cause US stock exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ) to list US MSOs, and we believe that such a move would mean that both the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) and the US exchanges should be fine with large Canadian listed LPs buying US MSOs (in full or with participation), ”the analyst said.

Photo by Aleksandr_Kravtsov / Getty Images

New York Flower Sales Update

Also in the note, Zuanic examined the New York market and found that adult flower sales are unlikely to start until January 2022.

As the “Office of Cannabis Management” is still in the configuration phase, the analyst is of the opinion that no full staff will be selected before June. This means that the process of drawing up the new rules for the adult use program and introducing changes to the medical program would not begin until the summer.

“We believe this process can take up to a year. That is why we are only modeling leisure time sales from July 1st, 22nd. “

This article originally appeared on Benzinga and was republished with permission.

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