Will New Mexico have enough weed to start adult sales?

With recreational cannabis sales slated for April 1 in New Mexico, state officials say growers are currently cultivating more than a million cannabis plants. But with dispensaries opening just days away, industry insiders are questioning the state’s numbers and whether there will be enough cannabis supplies for consumers and medical patients.

This week, the Cannabis Control Division (CCD) of the State Regulation and Licensing Department announced that licensed cannabis growers have entered 1,013,178 mature plants into a statewide tracking system. The number is more than double what state officials estimate is needed to supply the state’s 132,000 registered medicinal and recreational cannabis patients. Last summer, Linda Trujillo, Superintendent of the Regulations and Licensing Division, told lawmakers that the cannabis industry will need about 500,000 plants to meet demand.

However, some officials in the state cannabis industry have questioned the number of plants in cultivation reported by state officials. Duke Rodriguez, president and CEO of New Mexico Top Organics-Ultra Health, told the Santa Fe New Mexican that the number was “impossible” and that it would take “football fields after football fields” of land to grow that many cannabis plants. Jason Greathouse, co-owner of Roswell-based Pecos Valley Production, also expressed disbelief at the state’s asset census.

“If there’s a million cannabis plants in the state, I don’t know where they are,” Greathouse said. “Are these legal plants? Are these illegal plants?”

“I only have 3,000 plants in the ground,” he added, although he plans to have 20,000 by June.

Heather Brewer, a spokeswoman for the CCD, said Tuesday that the state’s total plant count is accurate, noting that it reflects information from the state’s seed-to-sale tracking system, BioTrack. The data is entered by the cannabis growers themselves, so “assuming all the information was entered correctly, this number is correct,” she said.

Regulators are raising limits on cannabis production

Earlier this year, CCD Director Heather Thomson announced the passage of emergency regulations to increase plant limits for cannabis growers. Under the temporary rules, most growers were allowed to grow twice as many plants.

“We have listened to producers, consumers and patients who are just as committed as Cannabis Control Division to supporting a thriving New Mexico cannabis industry,” Thomson said in January. “Doubling the plant count for licensed producers makes sense to ensure everyone can maximize the benefits of a thriving cannabis industry.”

But Rodriquez said he doesn’t think the state’s growers will have enough cannabis to avoid shortages once adult dispensaries open on April 1.

“What we have today, we will offer to the market. Will it be enough? The answer is no,” Rodiguez said. “It’s going to be challenging on day one, like maybe it’s going to be challenging for 9 to 12 to 18 months.”

But regulators believe there will be enough cannabis, with temporary shortages being addressed quickly.

“I can’t imagine that, and we don’t expect stores to be completely sold out either. Unless they only sold one product,” Thomson said.

Brian Vicente, a founding partner at cannabis law firm Vicente Sederberg LLP, said that “New Mexico is entering an exciting new post-prohibition era” when adult cannabis sales begin next week.

“The governor and regulators have shown a keen interest in supporting this growing industry while balancing the needs of diverse community members,” Vicente wrote in an email to High Times. “When a new state begins recreational sales, there are often fluctuations in cannabis supply as this new market levels off.”

After discussions with a number of New Mexico producers, Vicente said the companies are committed to serving the state’s emerging recreational cannabis market and are working to address concerns about possible product shortages.

“However, given the novel nature of this April 1 launch, it is certainly possible that demand will exceed supply in the short term and we may see volume restrictions or other measures to meet the high demand,” said Vicente.

Barbara Crawford, owner of medicinal pot grower Southwest Cannabis in Taos, New Mexico, has nearly doubled the capacity of her operation to about 3,500 plants in the last two years. But even with the new investments in production, she found that growing plants to maturity and harvesting them takes time.

“That’s just the reality of this business,” Crawford told Taos News. “I think we will eventually make it, but there will be a shortage in June. I don’t care how many stores there are.”