Will Missouri Vote For Legalization? Polls paint a messy picture

In just over a month, Missouri voters will go to the polls and decide whether the state should be the last to legalize adult recreational cannabis use.

The result seems decidedly in the air.

The Missouri Independent this week highlighted two recent polls that “found voters very divided on whether Missouri should legalize recreational marijuana use.”

A poll by Emerson College showed that a majority of Missouri voters – 48% – support Amendment 3, which would legalize adult use of cannabis in the Show Me State and establish a regulated recreational cannabis market there.

The poll found that 35% of state voters oppose Amendment 3, with another 17% saying they were unsure.

This poll was undoubtedly more encouraging for supporters of the change than another Remington Research Group poll. According to the Missouri Independent, this poll showed that “Only 43% of respondents [are] for Amendment 3, compared to 47% against and 10% unsure.”

Another poll drew a very different poll than these two. A SurveyUSA poll last month found a large majority of 62% of Missouri supporters of Amendment 3, compared with 22% who said they opposed it and 16% who said they were undecided.

All three of these polls were conducted in September.

Despite the nebulous outlook, Legal Missouri 2022, the group behind the change, remains hopeful it will pass next month.

“Support for Amendment 3 continues to grow every day because legalizing marijuana allows law enforcement to focus on fighting violent and serious crime while bringing tens of millions in revenue to the state annually,” said John Payne, campaign manager of Legal Missouri 2022, opposite the Missouri Independent.

Just getting Amendment 3 to the vote was a triumph for Legal Missouri.

The group submitted nearly 400,000 signatures to the Missouri Secretary of State in May, but by mid-summer there were reports that organizers may still have come up short.

For such a measure to qualify for the Missouri election, organizers had to collect signatures from at least 8% of registered voters in six of the state’s eight congressional districts.

A local television station reported in July that the number of signatures appeared to be extremely low in four of the districts.

“I can’t say without certainty if he’s going to make it or not. It is by no means certain that they will fail. That’s not dead,” Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft said at the time.

Ashcroft rightly urged caution. A month later, in August, Ashcroft’s office said the organizers had met the signing requirements and that the amendment qualified for voting.

“Our nationwide coalition of activists, business owners, medical marijuana patients and advocates of criminal justice reform have worked tirelessly to get to this point and deserves every credit,” Payne said in a statement at the time. “Our campaign volunteers collected 100,000 signatures, in addition to paid signature collection. This wave of grassroots support among Missourians who want to legalize, tax, and regulate cannabis made all the difference. We look forward to engaging with constituents across the state in the coming weeks and months. Missourians are more than ready to end the senseless and costly marijuana prohibition.”

If passed, Amendment 3 would “allow Missourians with nonviolent marijuana-related offenses to have their criminal records automatically erased” while imposing a 6% state tax on marijuana retail sales. It would also “allow local governments to levy local sales taxes of up to 3%.”