The BDSA report projects $57 billion in global cannabis sales by 2026

A report released by cannabis data company BDSA predicts that global cannabis sales will reach $57 billion by 2026 – up from the $30 billion in global cannabis sales achieved in 2021. The Global Market Forecast was released on September 13th. and reviews anticipated milestones for the cannabis industry to achieve over the next five years.

“The ‘hockey stick’ trend in sales growth seen in the early years of legal cannabis is over, and economic and regulatory headwinds are putting pressure on the legal cannabis markets,” said Roy Bingham, CEO of BDSA, in a press release. “Nonetheless, our updated forecast predicts that steady gains in developing U.S. markets will continue to drive single-digit annual growth in total U.S. rights sales in 2022, with continued growth prospects through 2026.”

The report also predicts that U.S. sales will grow from $25 billion in 2021 to $42 billion in 2026, accounting for about 75% of total global cannabis sales.

BDSA looks at how mature cannabis market prices experience historically low prices. Adult sales continue to decline, according to the Colorado Department of Revenue. Leisure sales in June 2022 reached $127,157,358 compared to June 2021 which reached $152,719,813. Sales of medical cannabis in Colorado are also following a similar slump compared to last year’s sales data.

However, BDSA adds that states such as Oregon and Washington have implemented moratoria to prevent oversupply. However, newer markets such as Illinois continue to perform well and have generated combined sales of $2 billion so far in 2022 (up 14% from 2021). The report finds that markets such as New Jersey, which recently rolled out its adult-use program, and New York, which is preparing to sell recreational cannabis very soon, will have high contributors to US sales through 2026 will afford.

Between New Jersey and New York there are 22 million adults who are expected to contribute $5 billion of the total of $42 billion expected in 2026 and continue to forecast revenue growth in 2022, driven by strong sales in new and emerging markets such as the populous states of New Jersey and New York,” said Bingham. “The US will continue to dominate global sales for the next few years, but we see potential in emerging global markets like Germany and Mexico.”

Medical cannabis sales continue to decline, particularly in markets that recently legalized adult-use cannabis sales, such as Arizona. “BDSA forecasts that annual dollar sales in the Arizona medical channel will be 30% below 2021 annual dollar sales and approximately half of 2020 annual sales — the last full year of all-medical sales,” according to a BDSA press release . “By contrast, the Colorado medical channel was still seeing modest annual revenue growth about two years after launching its adult market in 2014.”

Internationally, larger countries continue to expand their medical and/or recreational cannabis programs. Germany recently encountered a roadblock with concerns that a reform measure for adult use could be rejected by the European Union. Mexico decriminalized cannabis last summer, but adult cannabis has not yet been legalized. Smaller countries are beginning to take action, like the US Virgin Islands, which released draft medical cannabis regulations in August. Bermuda, a territory of the United Kingdom, recently made plans to implement a legalization bill, but British officials opposed it.