New Frontier Data projects 27.7 million pounds of cannabis grown in 2030

Cannabis data company New Frontier Data released “Growing Excellence: Seven Ways to Optimize Cannabis Cultivation in Newly Legal Markets” on Sept. 7, which highlights seven key issues new cannabis growers should consider in order to be successful.

“The continued activation of new legal markets will continue to push existing cannabis producers to expand their operations and bring new producers to market,” said Gary Allen, CEO of New Frontier Data. “By basing their strategic plans on the seven key factors identified in this report, operators can capitalize on this tremendous market opportunity.”

In a press release, New Frontier Data predicts that more than 27.7 million pounds of cannabis will be cultivated in the US in 2030 (compared to the 7 million cultivated in 2020). These numbers are reflected in the total amount of cultivation, which includes plants grown indoors, in a greenhouse or outdoors.

The New Frontier Data report finds that as legal cannabis supply shifts on the East Coast, so too do growing trends. “As the legal cannabis industry shifts eastward from West Coast markets, several factors will affect how cannabis is grown in the new markets,” the report states. “Different climatic conditions will favor controlled environments over outdoor growing, given either the length and depth of winters in the north or summer humidity in the south.”

Between 2022 and 2030, New Frontier Data projects that California will remain at the top of cannabis production with 26.4 million pounds, followed by Florida with 18.4 million, New York with 15.1 million, Illinois with 11.9 million and numerous other states that produce 10 million or less.

The first point of the report points to the temperature differences in summer and winter on the west and east coasts. As a result, most East Coast states will rely on indoor grow facilities, while California remains a leader in both greenhouse and outdoor farms.

Among other things, New Frontier Data mentions that automation will continue to increase, but needs experienced employees to manage it. The report also looks at the pros and cons of building or buying a cultivation facility now that established markets offer choices. Demand for certain products is also changing, with flowers still at the top according to average data from 2021, but other products are gaining popularity as well. “Value-added products (vapes, edibles, topicals, etc.) now account for half of all legitimate product sales, and consumer interest in these new products is poised for sustained growth as innovation leads to greater product quality and variety, and consumers the Enabling inclusion and incorporating cannabis into their lives in ever new ways,” the report reads. “While demand for flowers is also growing, particularly for pre-rolls, it is growing at a slower rate than demand for non-flower products.”

There is also a shift in resource efficiency that remains important due to various factors. Energy costs for indoor lighting can put a strain on the grid, but new LED technologies are helping to reduce power consumption. Likewise, irrigation through automated systems can also help conserve water compared to manual irrigation, in addition to focusing on water reclamation systems.

On the subject of water, however, the report notes that climate change poses a threat to many states, particularly those affected by a drought. “Cannabis producers need to consider the looming impact of a changing climate on their operations,” the report states. “Longer, hotter summers will add premiums for increased cooling demand and higher energy requirements for running HVAC systems at higher levels for longer periods. Acute droughts – like those currently occurring in western US states – will result in water scarcity, increased water losses through evaporation and higher costs for water from community or municipal sources.”

In conclusion, the report concludes that industry success is earned by those who adapt to the future. “While producers in new markets may be enjoying a period of high margins and little competition, the most successful operators will be those who plan for where the market is going, rather than where it is currently.”