Minnesota legal weed sales are expected to reach $1.5 billion by 2029

Minnesota’s regulated marijuana market is expected to grow to more than $1.5 billion per year by 2029, according to a forecast by a leading cannabis law firm. As the market matures, Minnesota cannabis companies are expected to serve nearly 700,000 adult cannabis users and medical marijuana patients statewide.

At a recent seminar on cannabis entrepreneurship hosted by Surly Brewing in Minneapolis, Travis Copenhaver, partner at cannabis and psychedelics law firm Vicente LLP, said Minnesota’s legalization of adult-use cannabis, signed into law by Democratic Gov. Tim Walz last month, offers entrepreneurs new economic opportunities in the country.

“The growth of the cannabis market in Minnesota will be a lucrative opportunity for people interested in the adult cannabis market,” Copenhaver said.

Vicente’s market analysis anticipates that growth in Minnesota’s adult-use cannabis market will broadly follow patterns in other states that have legalized adult-use recreational marijuana. Once adult cannabis sales begin, the market is expected to be characterized by a limited supply of recreational marijuana, leading to high prices. But as more producers and retailers enter the market, supply will increase and prices will fall, with the state’s overall cannabis economy projected to peak at about $1.5 billion per year by the end of the decade.

The forecast estimates that approximately 650,000 Minnesotans, approximately 15% of the state’s population ages 21 and older, will use cannabis monthly or more frequently. But getting current recreational cannabis users to make the switch to the regulated market won’t happen overnight. The analysis projects that it will be 2030 before the vast majority of consumers buy cannabis from regulated retailers.

Courtesy of Vicente LLP

New products for new customers

Brian Vicente, founding partner of Vicente LLP, said that with the legalization of hemp-derived food and beverages last year in Minnesota, consumers are prepared for the legalization of adult-use cannabis. He also noted that consumers in neighboring states that haven’t yet legalized recreational marijuana and other visitors to Minnesota will also help fuel growth in adult cannabis sales in the state.

“I think there’s a fair amount of tourist traffic in Minnesota from individuals coming in from Iowa and North Dakota … to buy Minnesota products,” Vicente said.

Colin Ferrian, a Minnesota native and cannabis industry veteran who serves as a portfolio manager for cannabis investment firm Poseidon, recently said that the legalization of recreational marijuana will lead to new innovations in the regulated cannabis industry.

“Minnesota is on track to become the most innovative location for cannabis products and brands once Governor Walz approves adult use legalization,” Ferrian said in a statement to Forbes.

“Last July, the state became the first state in the country to allow the sale of hemp-derived beverages and edibles through many channels through which consumers can find alcohol, and soon Minnesota residents over the age of 21 will also have access to flower and extracted.” Products in pharmacies,” added Ferrian.

Courtesy of Vicente LLP

Minnesota legalized cannabis last month

Minnesota ended marijuana prohibition last month when Walz signed legislation legalizing adult-use cannabis into law. The legalization bill, passed by the Minnesota legislature on May 20, will allow adults ages 21 and older to use marijuana recreationally and possess up to two ounces of cannabis in a public place starting August 1.

The bill also legalizes possession of up to two pounds of marijuana in a private home and limited home cultivation of cannabis by adults 21 and older. According to the legislation, adults would be allowed to grow up to eight cannabis plants at home, including four mature flowering plants.

The bill also legalizes the commercial production and sale of cannabis, with regulated sales of recreational marijuana coming after rules are drafted and approved by the Office of Cannabis Management, a new state agency created by the law. The new agency will also regulate medical marijuana and hemp-derived cannabis products.

According to a report by Minnesota Public, state agencies have set a target date of May 2024 to begin accepting applications from adult-use cannabis retailers. Recreational marijuana sales in dispensaries are expected to begin in January 2025. Once regulated recreational marijuana sales begin, adults will be allowed to purchase up to two ounces of cannabis, eight grams of cannabis concentrate, and edibles containing up to 800 milligrams of THC.