How will the elections in Germany affect the recreational cannabis market?

The general election in Germany is over and the results are fixed. The Cliff’s Notes version of this states that there has been an overthrow on the German electoral map in a way that still reverberates in political circles as coalition talks about which parties will form the new government is on its way.

Most of these parties, which this time achieved the greatest gains, agree on a number of points. And the good news for the industry, patients, and those who want a recreational market, is that it inevitably means another cannabis reform.

For this very reason, the German cannabis question is currently simmering in the domestic industry, because everyone knows that the status quo will not last. The medical industry is paralyzed by quality and production problems. In addition, there are numerous burdensome insurance obligations and the general refusal of doctors – only in financial terms – to get involved, let alone in questions of effectiveness.

Then of course there’s the famous German common sense that has started to flow through the debate, starting with the fact that there have been a few too many high profile pranks lately – including one of Germany’s largest grocery chains (and one of the biggest Grocer of the World), which was searched by police in August. All developments are signs that the status quo will not last much longer.

There is already a lawsuit pending on the part of the business community about the classification of CBD – and the need to remove it from the German Narcotics Act in order to reconcile this with the decision at European level last year that this cannabinoid is not a narcotic.

At this point, however, a change beyond pure CBD is also clearly in sight.

According to Christian Lindner, the power broker of the FDP, known for his election slogan as est is, it must not remain, the legalization of cannabis is the topic that will bring the new government coalition together.

Which is likely to happen in the German market

While any speculation about who will form the ruling coalition is likely to emerge from a much less specific policy at this point, there are some trends, if not statements, that are likely to fuel a multi-party coalition on broad topics.

Against this background and correspondingly vague statements by the mediators, it is also likely that the SPD will enter into a coalition government with almost 26 percent of the vote with the FDP, which was also won, clearly in the elections (11.5 percent) and the Greens (14.8 percent ).

Regardless of what actually happens, all parties with the exception of the right-wing extremist alternative for Germany or the AfD (which this time lost votes nationwide) have a much more progressive attitude towards cannabis than the CDU. In general, this means that it can at least be assumed with certainty that decriminalization and possibly also recreational cannabis experiments will be on the agenda in the next few years (see Switzerland, if not Luxembourg, not to mention the developments in Portugal and Holland) . .

The second discussion will be a much tougher struggle, at least politically, but it is also clear that it can no longer be completely avoided.

Things can’t stay the same

This election is absolutely one of the most momentous in Germany, if not in Europe, since the end of World War II. That is how long the CDU ruled here – and its – albeit hair-raising – defeat and the patterns of migration of voters to other parties tell their own story more generally to those who are interested in German, if not European politics.

When it comes to cannabis specifically, it’s clear that Germans in general are fed up with the ridiculous nature of the mishmash of cannabis regulations that are currently causing problems for everyone. Even GMP dealers were searched. For the burgeoning specialty CBD market, a visit from the fuzz is almost a rite of passage. On the patient side of the conversation, jail time for patients is not a conversation that scores points with many in the political class.

Furthermore, it is also clear that Europe, if not the EU, is slowly moving to more serious talk about cannabis reform, of a kind that is slightly more momentous than just decrimination.

The Swiss leisure time experiment will have an impact on the willingness of German industry to push ahead with a kind of reform that, depending on the activity of the interest group and the economy, could lead to a kind of leisure time experiment in the largest cities in the country.

Germany is also no longer in a cannabis vacuum in Europe (not that it ever really was). Just across another border, Holland is launching a national market within Europe. And no matter what news has come from Luxembourg lately (namely that they might postpone their recreational attempt due to a possible influx of canna tourists from neighboring countries including Germany), it will not be delayed forever.

While it is unlikely that Luxembourg will delay its market until Germany launches a recreational trial, it is entirely possible that a softening of cannabis policy here will allow other European countries to drive other types of changes that are now clearly on the horizon.

Aside from these developments and the current developments in Switzerland, the news that the Czech Republic is rethinking its discussion of cannabis (including allowing up to one percent THC in their hemp plants) has basically created a situation where Germans are literally Surrounded, if not the majority, by Europeans now agree to treat low or no THC cannabis like any other plant, and higher cannabis more like alcohol than a narcotic.

The conversation should only be interesting within the DACH trade alliance (Switzerland, Austria, Germany).

Regardless of the current market conditions that are unsustainable for most, the enormous costs of an exclusively pharmaceutical-oriented cultivation, production and distribution market, pent-up forces that continue to push for reforms will be able to move the needle forward more than incrementally over the next few years.

How far this should go, however, and how quickly, is a completely different question.

Regardless, change is clearly on the march – and continues to be a political issue with few negative effects and many benefits – namely, creating a major “problem” that the majority of parties that are now likely to set the political agenda can agree on.

One thing is certain. Another federal reform in the US will absolutely affect the conversation. And in the meantime, European states are lining up to experiment with a full reform that is familiar to Americans with experience in both markets.

The national change of power in Germany will only support such steps in this direction – nationally and regionally.