Experts Predict these countries will legalize cannabis in 2022 (the US is not among them)

By Andrew Ward

The cannabis reform is heating up across the country. This is accompanied by a booming multinational market, which, according to Prohibition Partners, is forecasting sales of 102 billion US dollars by 2026.

Global reform efforts also received a slap in the arm at the end of the year when Malta legalized possession of up to seven grams and home-growing earlier this month.

Photo by Kyle Glenn via Unsplash

With the third nation to be legalized now cemented, the question naturally shifts to who will be the fourth.

Benzinga received a number of responses from various cannabis sectors, from legal, capital, investor and advisors on this topic. Their responses indicated that the prospect of legalization has never been so hot.

More than 10 nations were named as possible doers in 2022, with sources citing expected regulatory moves, statements by national officials, and intuition as part of their rationale. These were the most talked about nations in the group:

Germany

Germany is often seen as one of the future world market leaders. Prohibition Partners names Germany, Israel and Australia as countries that are expected to develop their marketplaces over the next five years.

GermanyPhoto by Stefan Widua via Unsplash

The prospect of legalization heated up as the post-Angela Merkel era was finalized – with the upcoming coalition of progressive parties agreeing to legalize adult cannabis use and promote broader drug policy reform. Germany legalized medical use in 2017.

“2022 will be the year in which everyone looks at Germany and how the Green Light Coalition handles Germany’s EU and UN obligations,” said Jason Adelstone, deputy lawyer for the national cannabis law firm Vicente Sederberg.

Adelstone and multiple sources believe Germany will catalyze other European nations to implement similar laws.

“You will see that the other countries follow like a bushfire, starting with the eastern EU countries and moving west,” predicted Michael Sassano, CEO of Somai Pharmaceuticals.

other European countries

Several sources assume that various neighboring countries will follow Germany’s path. Adelstone noted that Switzerland and the Netherlands appear to be ready to run experimental programs.

The Swiss city of Zurich will shortly start a three and a half year pilot program that will enable people to buy cannabis in pharmacies and pot clubs. A scientific study of the process and effects of legalization is being carried out.

LuxembourgLuxembourg, Photo by Dado Daniela / Getty Imagess

In July, the Dutch pilot program for cultivation in ten cities appeared to have stalled and, according to the NL Times, could miss its planned implementation in autumn 2022. The differences between the participating municipalities and the state health court are to blame.

Luxembourg is also on the verge of legalization after a plan was presented earlier this year that calls for a vote in early 2022. Luxembourg has already legalized the cultivation of cannabis and personal use through laws passed in October 2021.

“If countries like Luxembourg and Germany move forward, that could mean more,” said Laura Bianchi, founding partner of the national cannabis law firm Bianchi & Brandt.

RELATED: 4 States That Might Legalize Recreational Cannabis In 2022

Forecasting five to seven nations to drive adult consumption reform in 2022, Bianchi notes that the pandemic has halted reform in many cases.

Sources also highlighted Portugal, Spain and Italy as EU countries that might join the reform movement.

Mexico

Mexico is regularly mentioned when it comes to legalization projections. Despite a ruling by the Supreme Court, it has not yet reached the finish line.

Like South Africa, Mexico has had to change its laws based on Supreme Court rulings. Nevertheless, the legislature is lagging behind the court rulings that have lasted several years.

Mexico's cannabis legalization law will boost business, but there are concernsPhoto by John Coletti / Getty Images

In June 2021, the Mexican judges waited no longer and voted 8: 3 in favor of legalizing adult consumption. National laws, however, have yet to be revised by Congress.

Jorge Escalona, ​​a Mexican national, cannabis consultant, and co-founder of the Nabis Group, said the nation’s cannabis laws remain in a “lawless gray area.”

RELATED: Malta is about to become the first country in Europe to legalize weed

He added that the country’s medical rollout also required a revision, which he hopes will bring reform of medicine and adult use in 2022.

“The Mexican Senate is set to amend the bill for the fourth time and expects it to be passed in the first quarter of 2022,” added Escalona.

In addition to Mexico, sources also expressed hopes for neighboring nations, including Jamaica and Costa Rica. Meanwhile, many noted that South American countries, including Brazil and Colombia, could reform their medical cannabis laws in 2022.

Will the US legalize in 2022?

Few, if any, sources mentioned the US as a candidate for federal reform in 2022.

Rob Sechrist, president of the Pelorus Equity Group and co-manager of the Pelorus Fund, said he does not see any cannabis deals from the GOP while President Biden is in office.

legal marijuanaPhoto by Darren415 / Getty Images

“I think we’re looking at the next government for the next chance to legalize cannabis at the federal level,” said Sechrist.

RELATED: President Biden comes under pressure from all sides for his stance on cannabis legalization

Laura Bianchi assumes that the focus will be on the banking reform in 2022.

“We can see banks and lenders treating the cannabis industry like any other industry and making it easier to actually do business,” she noted.

Meanwhile, Adelstone noted his interest in the bipartisan Harnessing Opportunities by Pursuing Expungement (HOPE) Act introduced by Representatives Dave Joyce and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“This bill would not only help remove the taint of cannabis convictions for millions of Americans disproportionately affected by the drug war, it could also put even more pressure on Senator Schumer to allow a Senate vote on SAFE Banking,” Adelstone said .

This article originally appeared on Benzinga and was republished with permission.

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